Portfolio Stress Test
If 2008 - or COVID, the dot-com bust, the 1970s - happened again today, how much would your portfolio drop? Enter your mix and replay eight real crashes: your drawdown, the recovery time, and the asset dragging you down.
See every crisis in detail
Lehman collapse and the subprime crisis. The S&P 500 fell ~55% from its peak; real estate and financials were hit hardest.
Oil shock and runaway inflation. Both stocks and bonds lost real value - only gold thrived.
The tech bubble burst; the Nasdaq fell ~78%. Notably, bonds and real estate rose as money rotated out of stocks.
Pandemic lockdowns cratered markets in weeks. A sharp V-shaped recovery followed within months.
Fed tightening, inflation and war. Uniquely, bonds fell alongside stocks - the classic 60/40 offered little shelter.
The Dow fell 22.6% in a single day - the largest one-day drop in history - amid a broader ~30% decline.
Sovereign-debt fears and the US credit downgrade. Gold and Treasuries rallied as havens.
Bitcoin fell from ~$20k to ~$3k; most altcoins lost 90%+. Traditional assets were barely dented.
Approximate historical asset-class returns applied to your weights - a realistic downside guide, not a precise backtest or financial advice. Crypto shows 0 for pre-2009 crises (it did not exist yet).
Frequently asked
What is a portfolio stress test?
A stress test asks a simple but vital question: if a past crisis happened again today, how much would your portfolio drop? Instead of guessing, it applies the actual historical returns of each asset class - stocks, bonds, gold, crypto, real estate - to your specific mix, so you can see your likely worst case before it happens rather than after.
How does this calculator work?
You enter your allocation as a percentage across nine asset classes and your total value. The tool then replays eight historical crashes - from 2008 and COVID to the dot-com bust and the 1970s stagflation - applying each period's approximate asset-class returns to your weights. It reports the drawdown, the money lost, how long that crash historically took to recover, and which holding dragged you down most.
Why does diversification change the result so much?
Because assets do not crash together. In 2008, stocks and real estate collapsed while gold and Treasuries rose; in 2022, stocks and bonds fell together but gold held. Mixing assets that behave differently is what shrinks your worst-case drawdown. Try the presets above - a 60/40 and an all-weather mix can produce very different pain in the same crisis.
Are these numbers exact?
They are approximate historical returns for each asset class over each crisis window, drawn from widely cited figures - not a precise backtest of your exact holdings. Crypto shows zero for pre-2009 crises because it did not exist yet. Treat the output as a realistic order-of-magnitude guide to your downside, not a guarantee. Real crashes are always a little different.
What is "recovery time"?
It is roughly how long that crash historically took to return to its previous peak - about 4 years after 2008, but only 5 months after the COVID crash. Recovery time matters as much as depth: a portfolio you can hold through a long drawdown without selling is worth more than one that forces you to capitulate at the bottom.
Can Alvest stress-test my real portfolio?
Yes. Alvest classifies your actual holdings automatically and runs these crisis scenarios on your live portfolio - plus Monte Carlo projections and real, after-inflation returns. You can start free.