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Retirement Drawdown Calculator

Will your money last? This runs 1,000 possible retirements to reveal sequence-of-returns risk - the reason two identical averages end so differently - and compares three withdrawal strategies. All in real, inflation-adjusted terms.

$
$
yr
Portfolio mix
60/40 · ~4.5% real
Withdrawal strategy
Same real income every year - simple, but can run out.
81%money lasts
81% chance it lasts 30 years
Starting withdrawal rate 4%. In the runs that failed, money typically ran out around year 25.
$0$1.5M$3Myr 0yr 15yr 30
10-90% range25-75%median
Median ending balance (real)$771,343
Range at the end (10-90%)$0 - $2,951,388
Median lifetime income (real)$1,200,000
Runs that ran out193 / 1000

1,000 Monte Carlo runs with lognormal returns at your chosen real mean and volatility; income withdrawn at the start of each year. Real (inflation-adjusted) throughout. A model, not a guarantee or financial advice - real markets have fat tails and your own path is just one draw.

RELATED GUIDEPortfolio risk and retirement planning: the complete guideSequence-of-returns risk, safe withdrawals, real diversification, fees and Coast FIRE.

Frequently asked

What is sequence-of-returns risk?

It is the danger that the ORDER of your returns - not just the average - decides whether your money lasts. Two retirees with the exact same average return can end up worlds apart: the one who hits a bad crash in the first few years, while also withdrawing income, can permanently cripple the portfolio, because there is less left to recover when markets rebound. This simulator runs 1,000 random return sequences precisely to expose that risk - a single "4% rule" number hides it completely.

How does this calculator work?

It runs a Monte Carlo simulation: 1,000 possible retirements, each with a random sequence of yearly returns drawn from your expected real return and volatility. In each one it withdraws your income at the start of every year, then lets the rest grow. The "success rate" is the share of those 1,000 runs where your money lasted the full horizon. Everything is in real (inflation-adjusted) terms, so the figures reflect today's purchasing power.

Is the 4% rule safe?

The 4% rule (withdraw 4% of your starting pot, then rise with inflation) came from historical US data for a 30-year retirement and was roughly 95% safe there. But it is not a guarantee: higher spending, a longer retirement, lower returns or a bad early crash can push the success rate down. Set your own numbers above and see your real probability rather than trusting a rule of thumb.

What are "guardrails"?

Guardrails (a simplified Guyton-Klinger approach) mean you adjust spending as markets move: if your withdrawal rate climbs too high after a downturn, you trim spending; if the portfolio grows strongly, you give yourself a raise. This flexibility meaningfully raises the odds your money lasts, at the cost of a variable income. Toggle between strategies above to compare.

Fixed income vs fixed percentage - which is better?

A fixed real income is predictable but can run out in a bad market. Withdrawing a fixed percentage of the balance never fully depletes the pot - but your income drops in downturns exactly when you may least want it to. Guardrails sit in between. There is no single right answer; the best choice depends on how much income stability you need versus how much longevity.

Can Alvest run this on my real portfolio?

Yes. Alvest models your actual portfolio - stocks, funds, gold and crypto - in real, after-inflation terms and projects it forward with your spending and goals, including probability-based retirement planning. You can start free.