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Safe Withdrawal Rate Calculator

How much can you actually spend in retirement? Instead of assuming 4%, this runs 1,000 simulations and finds the largest spending your portfolio sustains - at the confidence you choose, in real terms.

$
yr
Portfolio mix
60/40 · ~4.5% real
Withdrawal strategy
Same real income every year.
Confidence:
Spend up to $35,646 / year
That is $2,970/month · a 3.56% withdrawal rate · with 90% confidence it lasts 30 years (modelled 90%).
80% sure
$40,968/yr · 4.1%
90% sure
$35,646/yr · 3.56%
95% sure
$31,428/yr · 3.14%
The classic 4% rule would let you spend $40,000/year - at your settings that has a 81% success rate, below your 90% target - so 4% is too aggressive here.

1,000 Monte Carlo runs per confidence level, income withdrawn at the start of each year, all in real (inflation-adjusted) terms. A probability model, not a guarantee or financial advice. See the drawdown simulator to stress a specific spending plan.

RELATED GUIDEPortfolio risk and retirement planning: the complete guideSequence-of-returns risk, safe withdrawals, real diversification, fees and Coast FIRE.

Frequently asked

What is a safe withdrawal rate?

It is the percentage of your portfolio you can spend in the first year of retirement - rising with inflation thereafter - with a high chance your money lasts. This calculator does not assume a fixed number; it runs 1,000 market simulations and searches for the largest spending your portfolio can sustain at the confidence level you choose, all in real (inflation-adjusted) terms.

Is the 4% rule still safe?

The 4% rule came from historical US data for a 30-year retirement and was about 95% safe there. But it is a starting point, not a law: a longer retirement, lower expected returns, higher fees or a bad early crash all push the safe rate below 4%. Enter your own numbers and this tool shows the withdrawal your portfolio actually supports - which may be above or below 4%.

Why does higher confidence mean lower spending?

Because safety and income pull in opposite directions. To be 95% sure your money lasts, you must spend less than if you accept an 80% chance. The tool shows all three levels side by side so you can see the price of extra certainty - and decide how much income you are willing to trade for peace of mind.

How do guardrails let me spend more?

A fixed real income has to be conservative because it never adapts. Guardrails - trimming spending after a bad year and raising it after good ones - let you start with a higher withdrawal because you will pull back if markets turn against you. Switch strategies above to see how much extra starting income flexibility buys.

Is this a guarantee?

No. It is a probability model using your chosen real return and volatility, not a promise. Real markets have fat tails, sequences that no simulation perfectly captures, and your own retirement is a single draw. Use it to set a sensible, flexible spending plan - and revisit it as markets and your portfolio change.

Can Alvest calculate this on my real portfolio?

Yes. Alvest models your actual holdings in real, after-inflation terms and runs probability-based retirement planning - safe spending, drawdown and sequence-of-returns risk. You can start free.